The Fourth Industrial Revolution
And the Future of Jobs
Are you and your children ready for 4IR? That’s the short form for what’s called the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Each prior one upended work and production. As the World Economic Forum[i] notes, the First Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second Industrial Revolution in the late 19th and early 20th centuries used electric power to create mass production. The Third Industrial Revolution from the 1980s on used electronics and information technology to automate production.
We’re in the midst of 4IR, building on the digital revolution. It encompasses everything from robotics to artificial intelligence, nanotechnology to quantum computing, 3D printing to the so-called Internet of Things – the billions of devices that are connected to each other to enable greater efficiencies than ever.
By some measures, 4IR is happening 10 times faster and at 300 times the scale of the first one.[ii] That’s 3,000 times the impact. Klaus Schwab, Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, writes that “We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work and relate to one another. In its scope and complexity the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced.”[iii]
Yes, jobs are at risk in 4IR. That happens in any economic disruption. We didn’t halt the manufacture of cars because it put the horse-and-buggy trade out of business. Other opportunities are created, for workers and society.
For instance estimates are the self-driving vehicles will wipe out millions of cab, bus and truck driver jobs. And yet, the Conference Board of Canada predicted that the economic benefits from automated vehicles could top $65 billion/year, from the decline in collisions, congestion and fuel consumption, as well as more free time for commuters.[iv]
A few years ago, the Pew Research Center surveyed experts about the effect of 4IR on employment.[v] There was an even split. Half of the respondents saw more jobs lost than created. The other half saw more jobs created than lost. Nobody knows. We’re in an era where robotics or artificial intelligence can take your job. On the other hand, you can also create your own job, company and maybe an entire industry from your laptop.
Should everyone just train for technology jobs? Entrepreneur Mark Cuban thinks just the opposite. [vi]
Earlier this year, Cuban predicted that in the next decade some of the most in-demand employees will be people grounded in the liberal arts. His theory is that automation itself will take over tasks like writing software. What we’ll need are people with critical thinking and communication skills, who can make sense of all the information at our disposal.
Recently, columnist Ian McGugan wrote in the ROB Magazine about the future of jobs.[vii] He sees optimism. Consider one stat he reported: in 1900, 41% of U.S. workers were employed in farming. After a century of machinery, farm jobs account for only 2% of the labour market. It was a huge shift, but didn’t cause massive or lasting unemployment.
“The only way to create a better standard of living for everyone is to boost our collective productivity,” wrote McGugan. “To be sure, technology can erase specific jobs. But advances in automation have always left us even more prosperous on the whole.”
[i] World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
[ii] GE Reports, https://www.gereports.com.au/2016/02/28/28-02-2016ge-global-innovation-barometer-2016-pressure-rises-while-optimism-prevails/
[iii] World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
[iv] Conference Board of Canada, http://www.conferenceboard.ca/infographics/automated-vehicles.aspx
[v] Pew Research Center, http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/
[vii] Globe & Mail, http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/GAM/20170331/RBMMEWORRY